Zeroization What it is

February 3, 2009

Layoffs

Filed under: Economics — Tags: , — Mr. Zero @ 3:42 am

Every bubble needs its fuckedcompany.com. This time around its layoffdaily.com. The site claims 1300 layoff stories already this year alone.

September 23, 2008

15 Steps to Financial Ruin

Filed under: Economics — Tags: , , , — Mr. Zero @ 10:22 pm

How the whole sheband unravelled, starting with the Fed rate cut way back when.

August 1, 2008

Unemployment by the Numbers

Filed under: Economics — Tags: , , — Mr. Zero @ 4:07 pm

Stated unemployment is now up to 5.7% seasonally adjusted. The straight figure without adjustment is 6.0%. Neither of these are good signs for the economy. But it’s always interesting to delve below into the figures and see how difference populations are affected. They never report the stark figures for Black Male unemployment which for ages 20 and over is up to 10% that’s an increase of 2.4 percentage points year over year (seasonally adjusted.)

Education has a huge impact on unemployment. For those with less than a high school diploma, the unemployment rate is 8.4%. Compare that with the rate for those with a Bachelor’s degree which is at 2.4% right now. These spreads in percentage points are typical; There’s a lot to be said for finishing college.

U-6 is also an intesting indicator defined as:

Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.

In other words, people who are working part-time because they can’t find full-time work. That’s up to 10.3% this month from 9.9%.

Plenty of other stuff in there. The BLS’ release for July, 2008 can be found at this url.

July 3, 2008

25 Ways to Drive Oil Prices to $150

Filed under: Economics — Tags: , — Mr. Zero @ 3:24 pm

Back in May, Barry Ritholtz compiled a list of reasons why we are to blame for the current oil price increases. Mostly it’s a matter of having an energy policy that very much encourages the price to rise. He’s dubbed this perversity the “George Costanza Energy Policy” in honor of “The Opposite,” the episode of Seinfeld where Costanza gets a job with George Steinbrenner.

Of course, it’s not really perversity that led to this energy policy, but Bush’s close ties to the Saudis.

Now it appears that oil may actually reach $150. Could happen next week.

February 14, 2008

Hilarity from Laffer

Filed under: Economics — Mr. Zero @ 4:28 am

The Big Picture has a hilarious quote from Art Laffer (yes, that Laffer) about the tax rebate. Ironically, he doesn’t like it.

August 3, 2007

Fun with Mortgages

Filed under: Banking,Debt,Economics,Housing — Tags: — Mr. Zero @ 11:23 pm

The Big Picture (great blog) sums up the story of the subprime meltdown very nicely in this post. Check out the nice graphs of Q2 delinquency rates and where they are occurring. All told, it had a troubling (though deserved) effect on investment bank share prices and market caps.

April 28, 2007

The Best

Filed under: Economics,Humor — Mr. Zero @ 6:00 am

Penn & Teller’s Bullshit episode “The Best” includes thoughts from (and was probably inspired by) Barry Schwartz, author of The Paradox of Choice.

April 13, 2007

Tonic Closes

Filed under: Business,Economics,Music — Mr. Zero @ 7:30 pm

Generally, I’m all real estate going to the highest value use. But the notion of value is actually pretty elusive because of the great many things you can’t put a dollar value on. One thing you really can’t put dollar value on is the cultural capital of New York. This cultural capital exists only in it’s exercise and we have it. But music exists to be performed and listened to. Without anywhere to play, there will be no more music of the kind that Tonic supported.

It makes me very sad that New York has turned into the kind of place where the only use we have for space is to put a condo on it. New York is killing the vibrant cultural life that makes it a desirable place to live in the first place. Usually, I’m in awe in the kind of the abundance of wealth and choice we enjoy here. This trend of closing clubs and performance venues has me ironically wishing for decay of one thing to save something else that we value.

March 17, 2007

Why high levels of home ownership isn’t necessarily a good thing

Filed under: Economics — Mr. Zero @ 6:01 am
  1. Debt: Some kinds of debt are good and some are bad. Good debt is cheap and predictable. Bad debt is unpredictable for example, an Adjustable Rate Mortgage or a home equity loan taken out to cover current expenses.
  2. Poor Rental Market: Being able to reliably generate a stream of income from real estate is a good thing. If everybody owns, the rental market sags, which is bad for those who depend on it for income.
  3. Liquidity: Ownership means tying up a good deal of capital. It’s fine if you get a good return on it, but that depends on a lot of other factors, including timing. And investors have notoriously bad timing. Ownership is not a reliable way to fund your retirement.
  4. Mobility: People who own homes are less mobile. If you can’t move relatively quickly, you can’t exploit changes in the labor market. You’re stuck. Being stuck is not a good place to be.

August 10, 2006

Salaries shouldn’t be secret

Filed under: Career,Economics — Mr. Zero @ 1:41 am

The Chief Happiness Officer has an excellent post making a case for salaries being made public knowledge. It’s one of the most insightful things I’ve read on the topic. The post suggests there are three reason why secret salaries are a bad idea: it makes compensation unfair, it frustrates any debate about the topic (as it is secret,) and its a poorly kept secret. In the realm of economics we’d call this an information asymmetry – and where there is an information asymmetry, there cannot be an efficient market.

This leads to a number of problems that can affect both employer and employee. One of the dynamics at work is that without a ready and open source of information about salaries, people need to rely on job market to find out what their worth. In other words, employees who are underpaid must often put themselves up for auction to determine their worth. Once this information is available, employees can put it to use in one of two ways – they can use an offer from a competing firm as a bargaining chip or they can accept the better offer. The employer is thus put in the position of either participating in the auction, and countering the competing firms offer or choosing not to participate (and the employee leaves the firm.) I do not have empirical data to back this up (salaries being secret and all) but I hypothesize that in most cases, it is likely cheaper to participate in the auction – i.e. paying the employee more is cheaper than seeking a new candidate.

Another issue which the article hints at is the question of what the company values in employees. This is not always readily observable byt other employees. Valued employee gerally have objectively measurable qualities (sales performance, customer satisfaction, etc.) but they also have subjective qualities that the firm may value as well. If all discussion of is forbidden, then employees have no means of determining what the firm truly values in an employee. This extends to both the star performer and the marginal employee – the marginal employee does not have the information necessary to increase his value to the firm and the star performer does not necessarily know just how much he is valued relative to other employees.

Theoretically speaking, an open and fair compensation plan would incent marginal performers without over-rewarding star performers. The issue of workaholism would be eliminated in many firms. Only in poorly run organizations is the chronic workaholic rewarded for maintaining the perception of being more hard-working and dedicated than the 9-5 employee. A properly managed firm has no need, and indeed no use for rewarding non-productive behaviors.

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